Wednesday, September 05, 2012

Another Round of Rain Coming This Weekend

I'm sure the prospect of more rain has some of you "giddy" with excitement...but that's what is on tap for late Saturday into Sunday as a second, more substantial, cool front approaches from the west.  Computer modeling has sped things up with the front's timing and push through the region, now sending the front into the region on Saturday and out of the region on Sunday.   While rains will be possible Saturday into Sunday...and some of those may be heavy...it won't be *as* bad as what we've dealt with this week so far. 

That's assuming one scenario that the GFS had outlined earlier yesterday doesn't come to fruition.  This scenario showed a slower approach and passage with the front.  It also showed mid level energy dipping down and cutting the front off, preventing it from passing through and providing for a steady average for moisture to pull northward up the East Coast into Monday and perhaps Tuesday.  This scenario has shown up from time to time in the models but as of this morning, neither the GFS nor the EURO are depicting a stalling of the front and a soggy scenario unfolding.  We'll monitor this since such a scenario would be bad news locally given how much rain we have picked up in the last 48 hours.



For those wondering, that big "blob" to the east of Cape Cod on the graphic above is Leslie, probably a hurricane on this depiction of the GFS as it lifts north.  All indications are that this will miss the East Coast of the US but will generate significant surf and rip currents over the next several days as the storm spins in the Atlantic and then slowly moves northwest and then northward.  Leslie may hit Atlantic Canada early next week.