Sunday, September 30, 2012

Forecast for Monday, October 1, 2012

The upper level disturbance this evening will continue to combine with the cold pool aloft to pop some widely scattered showers, with the highest chances across the northern areas for any measurable precipitation. The puffy cumulus clouds should thin quickly with the loss of daytime heating. A relatively cool night can be expected. Any evening shower may produce some small hail.

For Monday, there should be sunshine to start with increasing clouds beginning to develop ahead of an approaching warm front that will eventually move through the region later on Tuesday. As this warm front gets closer, periods of showers should develop and possibly even a period of rain. There could be some embedded thunderstorms as well. More showers are likely on Wednesday with the approach of a cold front. Out ahead of the cold front will be warm and humid air and it is looking increasingly likely that Philadelphia could hit or briefly exceed 80 degrees. There still is a chance that the cold front moving through on Wednesday could also develop thunderstorms as well and how this plays out remains to be seen.

Another cold front will bring additional shower chances between Friday Night into Sunday. As we get closer to next weekend, I suspect we will be able to narrow down which day that there will be the most precipitation. At this time, I decided not to get too fancy due to some decent differences in temperature and moisture on the latest model guidance.