Saturday, September 29, 2012

Nadine Continues To Dance In Atlantic

Nadine has oscillated in intensity a couple of times over the past two days, with the storm bouncing between hurricane designation and tropical storm designation as winds have been between 70 and 75 mph since early Friday. With the 5 PM advisory this evening, winds have nudged up to 80 mph and it arguably looks the best it has looked as a tropical system so far.   There is some upper level wind shear and some dry air trying to sneak into the storm but by and large for a tropical cyclone in the middle of the Atlantic at 35 degrees north latitude this is not bad looking at all.

Nadine still has a ways to go to reach the longest duration storm on record -- Hurricane San Ciriaco from 1899, which lasted 28 days.  Hurricane Ginger (1971) had a 27 day life span to it and it's the longest of the satellite era (impressive enough!).  Nadine probably reaches the 20 day mark without too much difficulty before a large storm system over the North Atlantic, spawned in part from that slow front that took forever to clear the region, absorbs the low pressure center at some point next week or picks it up along the frontal boundary itself.  Most of the modeling suggests one more loop in the offing after it finishes the northwest movement that it's currently on, sending it briefly southwest before turning it east northeast...and then perhaps for another loop as a nontropical feature within that larger scale storm that's poised to approach Nadine next week.

In terms of impact, Nadine has been a storm that briefly threatened the Azores and brought gusty winds and rain to them over a week ago but did not do much more than bring rain, wind, and high surf as it passed a couple of hundred miles to their south.  Other than that, the storm has been safely dancing around in the midst of the Atlantic.