Thursday, September 20, 2012

Nadine Continues To Spin In Atlantic

Far away from the US East Coast, Tropical Storm Nadine continues to spin near the Azores Islands. The Azores have had a relatively active tropical season, with two having crossed close to the island chain through the course of the 2012 season (Gordon the other storm earlier this year). Nadine's appearance on satellite is not the best given it is over relatively "cool" waters in the Northeast Atlantic and that there's a fair bit of southwesterly wind shear in the mid atmosphere thanks to a trough and subsequent low to the west of Ireland (see the satellite below).  The appearance on satellite suggests a system that's in the process of evolving into a nontropical system, with a bit of a frontal band showing up to the east and southeast of the storm.  From a metorological perspective, these transitions are cool to watch but tough to pin down. 

Obviously, Nadine won't be a threat to the US since it's as far east as it is but the storm will continue to hang out in the Northeast Atlantic for a few days, perhaps finally transitioning nontropical over the next day or two.  Nadine will not be fully "picked up" by the trough near Ireland and the resulting outcome is a meandering storm in this part of the Atlantic.

Elsewhere in the Atlantic, there's a large nontropical low in the Central Atlantic (to Nadine's west) that's moving slowly westward. It could transition into a subtropical (hybrid) or even tropical system in the next couple of days but the storm will stay in the Atlantic and gradually turn back north and northeast.   The rest of the Atlantic is generally unfavorable for substantive tropical development at this point and computer modeling doesn't hint at much of anything over the next week to ten days.  

Any potential tropical development may occur in the Pacific over that time frame -- a strong tropical system may develop in the Eastern Pacific over the coming days to the south of Mexico and some computer modeling hints at that potential system hitting the Baja next week.