Friday, September 28, 2012

Showery Sunday Evening Possible

Trends are encouraging that we can coax a halfway respective weekend of weather locally -- it may not be nice both days this weekend but compared to where we were at this point on Wednesday morning I think most folks aren't going to complain about a halfway decent Fall weekend.  It won't feature wall-to-wall sun as Saturday starts cloudy in a number of locations but I do think we'll see a decent 24-36 hour stretch of weather from midday tomorrow through at least midday Sunday, perhaps making it to Sunday evening before shower chances approach the region.

The next organized disturbance that looks to move through our region should be on Sunday, originating from a mid level energy lobe that's currently over Quebec. As the disturbance that brought today's shower activity lifts northeast, this mid level pocket of cold air will drop slowly southward in its wake, hitting the Lakes on Saturday, moving into Northwest Pennsylvania early Sunday.

By Sunday night, the energy lobe is weakening but there's still enough kick there to keep shower chances in the forecast for Pennsylvania, perhaps also for North Jersey later at night.  This, like the systems that have impacted our region over the past couple of days, may not spread showers in for everyone but there will be enough instability around to bring a perceived risk of showers for Sunday afternoon, evening, and perhaps into early Monday before this disturbance pushes back north into Canada.

The next shot after Sunday PM's shot of showers looks to be in the Tuesday into Wednesday timeframe but uncertainty exists about how robust the system will be as the models vary in timing, how much rain, and details.  The system comes at us from the Gulf of Mexico and *could* bring decent rains to the region but details are still far from certain since the energy with this potential storm system is in Northwest Mexico and a ways off.