Saturday, September 29, 2012

Sunday Showers, Tuesday Soaker Possible

Today's weather looks halfway decent although one can't completely rule out a few showers later on this afternoon in a couple of spots. There are two shots of precipitation in the next few days -- one minor, but perhaps enough "there" to impact the Eagles game tomorrow evening, the second a bit more robust.

First, tomorrow afternoon and evening. The cold pocket of energy we talked about yesterday is still poised to bring a round of afternoon and evening showers to Pennsylvania and New Jersey. The farther north one resides, the better your chances of getting a shower from this disturbance. Since there will be cold air aloft and some instability, we can't rule out thunder nor can we completely rule out the possibility of small hail from these showers tomorrow.  It's your "typical" cold air instability shower event.   Modeling is varied on shower placement but generally has the timing centered on Sunday evening for the Delaware Valley and points north.  The GFS is the exception to this and shoots the precipitation through on Sunday afternoon.  The difference in timing isn't terribly huge but it does mean the difference between a dry(ing) Eagles game where showers have exited the area and perhaps one that features a round of showers.  In any case, any shower activity should not last through the duration of the game and be more of a nuisance should the game get rained upon.

After those showers depart Sunday night, attention for us weatherfolk turns to this storm system organizing in Texas.  It is ingesting tropical moisture from the Pacific (remnant moisture from Norman is in the storm) and will bring on Gulf energy as well.  It's going to intensify and push northeast towards Pennsylvania.  Rain spreads in overnight Monday into Tuesday and could be heavy at times on Tuesday.   Track of this low is generally west of the city, putting us on the moisture-laden and humid side of this storm system.  Rainfall could exceed an inch on Tuesday in parts of the region.

There's still some uncertainty on specifics with where the heaviest rains set up -- odds for now lean towards Central into Wednesday Pennsylvania but we'll monitor things over the next couple of days while the storm system organizes across the Gulf.