Sunday, September 02, 2012

The Prospect Of Rains Over The Next Days

With the remnant moisture of Isaac poised to move eastward over the coming days, the potential for scattered thunderstorms will be in our forecast daily through Wednesday, perhaps even into Thursday depending on how quickly a frontal boundary can kick them through the region. In the next few days, shots of energy will push through and produce chances for showers and storms...with the main source of energy with Isaac poised to come through on either Tuesday night or Wednesday, depending on which model you wish to believe (the GFS is a bit slower than the Euro on pushing the "main" bucket of energy through).

The two models (Euro above, GFS below) paint the potential for a fair bit of rain in the coming days, with the Euro a bit more aggressive across the region for rainfall as it is painting the prospect of as much as three inches of rain through Thursday across Eastern Pennsylvania.   These rainfall projections are mere child's play compared to what fell in Louisiana and Mississippi (on the order of twenty inches around New Orleans) last week as Isaac slowly churned onshore and are still going to be lower than what has fallen in Missouri and Arkansas as Isaac stalled out over the center of the country for a couple of days.

Keep in mind it's not going to rain at all times but we will have varying periods of showers and storms, with lulls in between.   If the more aggressive Euro is right, the potential for some minor flooding can't be ruled out on Tuesday night and Wednesday as the remnants of Isaac bring a more widespread soaking to the region.

We'll keep an eye on this over the next day or so but the weather does look unsettled, stormy to soaking at times, with Isaac's leftover moisture finally nudging towards our region.