Saturday, September 15, 2012

Tuesday Soaking Perhaps Just West Of City

The weekend offers two beautiful days with weather that will be very similar to what we enjoyed earlier this week -- 70's for highs, low humidity, lots of sunshine. We've been very lucky the past week to have a stretch of weather like this for as long as we have...and like almost all good things, they do come to an end.

Monday marks that transition away from niceness -- although Monday should remain dry through most of the afternoon before shower chances increase to our west -- clouds will be on the increase regardless as a storm system that is presently over the South finally starts moving towards us. It's spinning over the Ozarks as of this morning and will slowly move east in the coming days, finally getting picked up and pulled up through the Appalachians ahead of a strong cool front that will push south from Canada over the next few days. The resulting combination is a rainy, perhaps soaking for some, Tuesday.

The GFS and Euro are both in pretty good agreement about the rainy aspect of the day -- they disagree a bit on where the plume of heaviest rains will fall.  The GFS' run last night brings the heavy rainfall along and just west of I-95 on Tuesday...with the Euro pushing this belt of rain through across the western half of Pennsylvania.   This looks like a situation where New Jersey and Delaware could get showers or a band of rain and wind with the front on Tuesday evening but shouldn't see as much rainfall as those west of the city may receive.

Rainfall could exceed an inch west of I-95, with some two inch plus totals not out of the question in the heavier plume of rainfall.  As of now, this heavier plume looks to stay along and west of's a question of how far west it sets up that is still to be debated.  Those east of the city could see a good bit less rainfall.

In the wake of this soggy system on Tuesday, a resumption of seasonably cool weather will take hold over the East for the duration of the week, with the coolest to average in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.