Tuesday, September 18, 2012

Windswept, Soggy At Times

Rains have been falling in parts of our region since 1 or 2 AM depending on location and today's going to be one of those days where rains will be off and on, with it being more off east of I-95 today than on while the opposite holds true the farther west you are. A large storm system is pushing through the Northeast today, spreading a couple of thumps of rain through -- the first this morning, the second with the potential squall line that sets up for this afternoon and evening.

Temperatures in the 60's and low 70's this morning are accompanied by higher dew points and increasing wind south of the city -- winds gusted over 20 mph at 4 AM in Wildwood. We'll see winds gradually ramp up through the day today and become gusty at times this afternoon in advance of the front, perhaps to 40 mph.  Showers are possible at any time, especially west of I-95 where there is better moisture support and lift.

By later this afternoon, a squall line may begin to develop in Central Pennsylvania and slowly march eastward.  This line will spread a shot of heavy rain and even gustier winds through the region between 6 PM (west) and 2 AM (Jersey Shore).  This front could produce wind gusts to 60 mph, perhaps higher west of the city, as it moves through before winds quickly slacken off post-front.  As a result, we're under a slight risk for severe weather around the region.  Weak tornadoes are also possible given wind shear in the atmosphere.  More on the specific threats later this morning.  Rainfall should average out to between one and two inches across the region...in general, Jersey should get the lower end of those totals while Central and Northeast Pennsylvania get the two inch (or more) rains.  Not enough to cause problems except for the usual suspect streams.

Highs this afternoon will range from the 70's in the areas that get the most rain today (farther north and west) to around 80 in the city and points east.