Sunday, October 21, 2012

Forecast for Monday, October 22, 2012

High pressure will remain in control of our weather through Tuesday. A weak warm front will cross the region later Tuesday into Wednesday. At this time, the best moisture should be to our north and west. However, a few showers, especially north of Philadelphia, cannot be ruled out. This front will try to return as a cold front before likely dissipating or washing out on Wednesday. Another ridge of high pressure will try to build in for Thursday and Friday. Right now, I am optimistic that the position of the high will result in dry and warm conditions…although I can see a narrow window where this high actually produces an onshore flow with clouds, cooler temperatures, and patchy drizzle.

The weekend into early next week contains a lot of uncertainty. A strong cold front will be approaching the region by Saturday Night and Sunday. Meanwhile, a tropical disturbance, possibly soon to be named, will be moving north-northwest. Will these two systems interact and converge over us? Will the tropical system delay the frontal passage? Will the tropical system hold the front to our west and ride up the eastern seaboard? Will it move out to sea and allow the front to pass through bringing us a good shot of colder air? Will this tropical system even survive this week as it moves northward in some fashion? Is this just the modeling generating something that is a fantasy? We are all asking these questions and unfortunately must await more model guidance closer in time to come up with accurate answers. However, one should not make the tragic mistake of assuming that just because it is October, we aren't vulnerable to tropical cyclones because it is “cooler”.  Tropical cyclones or their remnants can strike at any moment in time and preparedness efforts should be made all year round. 

The bottom line…the extended forecast contains very low confidence and strong uncertainty and has the potential to change drastically this week.