Saturday, October 27, 2012

Forecast for Sunday, October 28, 2012

Hurricane Sandy will transition into a Post-Tropical Cyclone on Monday into Tuesday as it makes landfall between the Long Island and the Delmarva coastline. A strong trough which is accompanied by fresh, cold air will suck up the system and bring Sandy inland. The trough sucking it inland will be aided by a blocking high pressure to the northeast of Sandy. This will allow the system to make a rare, left turn. This left turn will allow Sandy to crash into the Mid-Atlantic in a parallel fashion, likely amplifying many of the associated effects. As it brings Sandy in, it will also allow the structure of the system to change. Several processes will allow the system to actually strengthen for a time as it comes ashore. Not only will it strengthen, but wind field will expand as Sandy loses many of its tropical characteristics.

Sandy will slowly move towards the coastline and crawl as it moves inland. So you have already many factors leading to rare, widespread damaging winds. But the slow movement will allow for these factors to be prolonged only increasing the threat for widespread tree and structural damage. The wind field is already very large to begin with!

How strong will the winds be and where will the heaviest rain axis occur?

If you end up falling to the south of the center of circulation, you will be on the rainiest side…but not necessarily the windiest. However, damaging winds would still be very likely along with at least modest storm surge and moderate to major coastal flooding.

If you end up falling to the north of the center of circulation, you will fall on the windiest side. The winds will also be in a direction more supportive of severe to record storm surge if you are along a coastal waterfront. Major to severe coastal flooding will occur in any coastal or tidal area. There will still be heavy rainfall, but most likely the highest amounts the storm will produce should not be in this area. Still, flash flooding and waterway flooding is possible as the rainfall amounts are nevertheless going to be significant. Also, there would be a threat of isolated, fast moving tornadoes that are brief in nature.

Right on the northeast side of where the center makes landfall, there is a potential for an enhanced corridor of destructive, sustained winds. This corridor could be 50 to 100 miles wide. Without narrowing down the landfall point, where this occurs, if even in our area, is still not known.

Time is running out to prepare for possibly one of the worst storms to ever hit the area. Hurricane or Post-Tropical status will not matter. Electricity, cell phone service, landline phone service, and cable service are susceptible to experiencing long duration outages.

Sunday…winds increase and so will the rain area. You could probably still squeeze in your plans in the morning hours through mid-afternoon without having to worry about impassible roads or trees falling. Sunday Evening, conditions should quickly deteriorate…especially across Southeastern NJ and Delaware.

Early Monday…Rain becomes torrential along with high winds beginning from southeast to northwest. High surf. Increasing tidal/coastal flooding.

Monday Afternoon through Tuesday Afternoon…Coastal flooding, beach erosion, sustained damaging winds with destructive wind gusts, storm surge, flash flooding, and interior waterway flooding likely. Isolated tornadoes are possible. Dangerous surf.

Tuesday Evening and Tuesday Night…Rain becomes showery. The wind will slowly decrease, but high winds are still expected. Lingering flooding.

Wednesday…Some showers remain (wouldn't be shocked to hear of snowflakes N&W), lots of clouds, and still some strong wind gusts.  Lingering flooding.