Sunday, October 14, 2012

Gusty Rain At Times, Perhaps Some "Severe" Tomorrow

Tomorrow's not a clear cut "severe weather" type day in terms of thunderstorms with hail and the type of damage typical with summer severe weather. Tomorrow's cool front that's pushing through the region will have a solid amount of wind energy with it, a fair amount of moisture, and the potential for some gusty squalls of showers tomorrow afternoon and evening for areas south of the city.

Higher resolution modeling suggests that while most of us see some shower activity tomorrow afternoon and evening, rainfall may be steadier to perhaps heavier in Delaware and South Jersey as the front crosses the region late in the day.  If there were an area where any sort of squall line or fall squall were to develop, south of town would be the best bet.  Showers will be possible at nearly any time tomorrow west of the city, moving into the city during the afternoon hours. but any squall line (should it develop) will take place after 3 PM south and southwest of the city.

Gusty winds will probably be the biggest threat tomorrow should any fall squall develop -- winds during the day will gust to over 20 mph ahead of the front as well.  With the wind energy in place with the approaching front there's enough potential that the squall could produce marginally severe wind gusts (60 mph or greater) in any rounds of rain that move through to our south.