Saturday, October 20, 2012

How Nice, For How Long?

With the exit of Friday's rains and a nice weekend on tap, we're about to enter an extended stretch of relatively benign weather around here as high pressure sets up shop across the East, gradually moving just off the East Coast by the middle of the week. The pattern is pretty much setting up for nice days with mild to warm temperatures during the afternoon, pleasant nighttime temps in the city, and little in the way of precipitation.

It *might* sprinkle or shower on Tuesday night into Wednesday to Philadelphia's north as a weak front tries to make inroads into the region. Odds favor that front drying out and dying before it gets here.

In essence, a week of weather win is ahead of us as we step back to September during the latter stages of October.  We could see some middle 70's around here again next week for highs.

However, long range pattern does indicate a change in the cards around the 27th or 28th (next weekend) as the high pressure in the atmosphere weakens its grip and a cold trough dives into the Midwest.  The result may be a pretty sharp cool front that pushes through and brings an end to Indian Summer and brings us back to reality for Halloween as highs may be back in the 50's for the days leading up to month's end.

Additionally, the tropics may perk up later next week into next weekend.  The Euro hints at something developing near Jamaica, lifting northward into the Western Atlantic.  The Euro keeps this far away from the East Coast but we're still a good distance away from anything even developing.  The GFS hints at something similar developing as well down in the Caribbean.

Enjoy the next week of weather -- this might be the last blast of nice, warm weather we see this Fall and it will be enough to ensure we end October above average.