Thursday, October 11, 2012

Late Season Tropical Fun

Tropics season is starting to wind down -- and in fact, this might be the last gasp for the 2012 Hurricane Season as far as potential is concerned as a slightly more favorable tropical pattern is setting up in the Western Atlantic over the next few days. Two disturbances -- one near the Bahamas, the second east of Barbados, may potentially develop.

The one close to home, near the Bahamas, is trying to organize despite unfavorable wind shear aloft. It is modeled to push northeast in some of the global modeling in response to the wind shear; however, tropical modeling is trying to keep this disturbance near the Bahamas or even drift it southwest over the next couple of days as wind shear is projected to shear the core thunderstorms away from the low level circulation. Most of the models don't keep this entity around for very long regardless of which track it ultimately takes as an approaching cool front to its north and northwest, combined with those unfavorable upper winds, impact it significantly.

Farther southeast, a large disturbance east of the Windward Islands has potential to develop into a tropical storm over the next few days as a more favorable environment persists over it.  It will move northwest, then north, over the next several days.  Computer modeling takes this storm system towards Bermuda next week but will keep it away from the United States as a cold front pushes off the coast on Monday into Tuesday and keeps this system (Patty is the next name on the list) safely out in the Atlantic.