Monday, October 15, 2012

Onto Friday's Storm System

After today's showers and front move through, it'll be a tranquil few weeks around the region as we lurk in storm systems with a relatively mild regime. The next storm system will impact our region sometime in the late Thursday or Friday timeframe, with the computer models showing a bit of different in handling and "how much" rain may ultimately fall.

Both models show a deep low pressure and associated surface storm system developing in the Midwest that will pivot east through the Great Lakes later this week.  In last night's runs of the model, the Euro is a bit slower and soggier than the GFS.  The Euro pushes rain into the region on Friday and lingers it across the region into early Saturday, with the GFS bringing it in late Thursday and Thursday night, pushing it away on Friday afternoon.  The front will slow in its approach and slowly cross the region regardless of the scenario...but modeling varies on how much rain may fall locally.  The storm system tries to draw Atlantic moisture and energy into it on both models but the GFS does not suggest as much heavier rain being produced out of the storm system until the storm system passes by us (which means that the heavy rain threat would be primarily in New England), whereas the Euro because of the slower timing does bring more heavier rain into our region as it is able to tap into the Atlantic before the front crosses us.

Odds, for now, lean towards the earlier scenario being a bit more correct given historical model biases with the Euro being a little slower with timing in the five day range and the GFS a bit closer to "right" at this range on timing...which would mean a chance of rain late Thursday through Friday.  If the GFS is right, next Saturday should be dry although with a varied mix of clouds and sun.