Sunday, October 14, 2012

Rafael's Trek Through Caribbean

Tropical Storm Rafael was a disorganized but drenching mess for the Lesser Antilles as it developed late Friday night and lifted through the islands on Saturday. The Caribbean islands picked up a few inches of rain -- as much as three inches for some of the islands -- as the late season storm drenched these islands.

Rafael is getting better organized this morning as wind shear in the atmosphere lessens and the storm moves into a marginally more favorable environment for the next two to three days as it moves north-northwest and north through the Atlantic.  It would not shock to see this system reach hurricane status in the next couple of days, especially in periods where shear abates enough to allow further strengthening.

Rafael's track will be far to the east of us -- it may pass to the east of Bermuda on Tuesday evening as the storm turns back northeast later on Monday thanks to the influence of a cold front pushing off the East Coast tomorrow.  We might see some brief bump in the surf, especially if Rafael can strengthen and remain strong as it pushes north through the Atlantic.  However, its impacts from a rain and wind standpoint from here on out will be confined to perhaps Bermuda and perhaps the southeast tip of Newfoundland as a nontropical storm.