Thursday, October 25, 2012

Sandinista!

Sandy continues to display impressive tropical qualities this evening as it spins across the Bahamas and moves into the open Atlantic Ocean.  Depending on timing, we could start seeing impacts from Sandy on Sunday morning around the region...and given the slightly faster speed with the storm, I would not be surprised if it does indeed arrive on Sunday morning.

The thread title in homage to "The Clash", who released the titled album in 1980...and there is indeed a clash at work...a trough in the atmosphere digging down, merging into the tropical entity, and creating a larger, still powerful hybrid storm that will have some tropical characteristics will spreading out over a larger area than most tropical systems do.


Tomorrow, we'll outline what we think the specific impacts will be for the region -- rain, wind, water, flooding...that type of stuff.  In general, three to five inches of rain, at least, is likely going to fall in most places.  Some places, especially eastern Pennsylvania, could see more. Winds could reach hurricane force in gusts at the Shore or Delaware, especially if the center comes inland in Maryland.  Regardless of center point., it's still going to be a bad storm...perhaps one that rivals the great nor'easters of record for Jersey and Delaware (think Ash Wednesday in '62, Ida, and other such famed coastal storms that your uncle could talk your ear off about).  Track does matter though for the worst of worst impacts -- and that part is still somewhat up in the air although the 'zone' of uncertainty seems to be shrinking to somewhere between Maryland and Long Island...for those of you at the Shore, this is one storm that you want the storm center to come in to your north given the track will be a bit "odd" for our latitude as it will come in at a NNW or WNW trajectory.  Worst impacts at the Shore will be north of that center point or landfall.

Inland gets its share of gusty winds and lots of rain.  Flooding will be possible on a lot of streams and rivers from this storm.  Its duration will surpass Irene's 12 to 16 hours of impact as this could be a 36 hour event locally.

We'll have more tomorrow.