Thursday, October 18, 2012

Showery Tonight, Rainy Start To Friday

Severe weather in the South yesterday is in association with a storm system that will impact our region tonight and the first half of tomorrow. It does look like a rainy commute to work is on tap for Friday morning as a band or two of rain associated with an approaching cold front will be moving through the region. Computer modeling times the approach of rain for this evening, with the higher resolution models trying to introduce showers into the region by 10 PM tonight.

Rainfall will be in bands and scattered areas of showers tonight, with a steadier round of rain moving through during the pre-dawn and morning hours before things begin to taper off towards midday with the front crossing the region.  Rain will be locally heavy in spots; however, organized and widespread areas of heavy rain don't appear likely at this point.  The NAM (see below) shows the scattered nature of rain in its depiction of what 6 AM tomorrow looks like -- rain along the coast, a scattered hodgepodge of showers back in Central Pennsylvania along the front.

There is some potential for gusty winds in stronger rounds of showers overnight and early tomorrow and it's possible a line of squally showers sets up -- that may be associated with the front as it comes in from the west during the morning hours.  It does appear that warmer air will push northeast along the coast overnight with a warm front.  We could see the threat for a squall line to fire up across the Carolinas, Virginia, and perhaps into the Delmarva overnight.  The Storm Prediction Center as of early this morning has Central and Southern Delaware under a slight risk for severe weather -- this would be in association with wind from any squall line that does fire up.  Odds, however, favor this staying south of the region.  However, given the wind energy aloft (NAM hints at a low level jet riding northeast along the coast overnight, pushing into New England on Friday), there could be some gusty winds in stronger showers.

Rainfall totals will vary -- a quarter inch in the lesser amounts to as much as an inch -- with the best chances for the highest totals west and northwest of the city and along the coast.  Not everyone gets an inch...and I-95 may very well end up with the lowest rainfall totals on this storm system if the NAM's thinking (split heavier rain northwest and along the coast) ends up being right.  In any event, showers will be around with us tonight and tomorrow...and for some, it will be more than just showers.