Wednesday, November 07, 2012

Bullseye For Some, Dud For Others

The sun is down and precipitation continues. For some, this has been a pretty good snowfall to kick off the cold season. For others, the presence of dry air in the lower atmosphere has killed the westward march of snow and precipitation...resulting in not much snow falling and some drizzle and light rain so far.

The snow/no snow line appears to be along and close to 476 through the Philadelphia metro and along 95 south and west of the city.  Even in the city, the snow hasn't been that heavy and hasn't stuck.  Some of that is the dry air factor that we mentioned on Facebook earlier today.   Part of it is also simply that it was still daylight.

The bullseye bands in New Jersey have been pretty efficient at dropping some good early season snowfall -- three inches in parts of Cumberland and Atlantic Counties today, with a couple of inches accumulating through 5 PM in Ocean County in the coastal "bullseye" band.  This event is shaping up as a Jersey special of sorts -- and yeah, the city isn't quite making out too good.

This evening, this is Jersey's event.  Two areas of heavier snow will pivot around -- one near 295 and the NJ Turnpike south of 195 and near Mount Holly, the second along the coast in Ocean County.  These areas will be where the two to five inch totals will occur.  Essentially, the snow wall was about 25 miles farther east than we anticipated...and part of it was due to a slightly different alignment of precipitation than what was modeled.  Snow pushed farther up the East Coast and not as far inland as models indicated...dry air winning out that battle.

We have one more high tide to go through with this storm tonight -- that high tide will bring minor to perhaps moderate coastal flooding.  This afternoon's high tide did produce some minor flooding along the beaches at the Shore but it was a little lower than first estimated and forecast.  Wind impacts have not been as bad as earlier anticipated at the Shore -- the highest gusts have been in the 30 mph range so far but nothing too much higher than that has been seen locally.  Most of the higher winds have been towards Southern New England and off of Nantucket.  We are catching a bit of a break with this coastal storm but for some, the heavier and dense snow that is falling will cause power outages -- this is more likely in those heavier bands in  New Jersey this evening.