Sunday, November 04, 2012

Coastal And Impacts It Will & May Bring

If it weren't for Sandy's dramatic slamming into the coast a week ago, the modeled coastal storm for Wednesday night into Thursday would be a mere "run of the mill" coastal event with rain, wind, and minor tidal flooding.

With the Shore still reeling from a bad pounding, the upcoming coastal storm will pour salt water on a rather open wound.

This will not be anywhere near as bad as Sandy was but a period of 30 to 50 mph wind gusts at the Shore, moderate to heavy rain, and one or two high tide cycles that will cause moderate coastal flooding will not do the locals justice and will cause its share of added insult to injury.  At best, it slows recovery efforts by a day or two.  If winds are stronger and the rainfall projected gets a bit heavier, we're looking at a few days' worth of problems added to the recovery efforts.

Not to mention the beach takes another...but again, not as bad as last week...pounding from a storm that is progged to be pretty strong as it passes by the Jersey coast on Wednesday night.

There is still some difference between the models around the evolution of the storm -- the Euro is the closer of the two models to the coast in last night's run and today's run as well (not shown), the GFS is farther east.  The result of the farther west track on the Euro brings snow into Central into Northeastern Pennsylvania on the forecast -- with a few to perhaps several inches falling as the storm moves in Wednesday night into Thursday across the higher terrain north/west.  Today's Euro is suggesting some snow on the front end in the Philly burbs before a relatively quick transition to rain.

The GFS, with its east track and eastward nudge between last night and midday today, suggests mainly rain for all since the storm's precip shield would be just far enough east of where temperatures will be cold enough for snow.  It could snow in the highest elevations of Northwest Jersey, perhaps into the higher elevations of the Poconos...but by and large the snow chances are much smaller on the GFS than on the Euro as air is just mild enough for rain everywhere.  This part is still up in the air and modeling over the next day or two may waffle a bit more regarding where the precipitation shield tracks.  If the Euro track ultimately verifies, some snow may be on the table and on the table closer to the city than on the GFS.  At this point, it does look like it's more likely in higher elevations and not across the valleys and most likely in the Poconos, upper edges of Lehigh Valley, and across Northern and Northwest Jersey.  We will keep an eye on this.

Rainfall could top an inch in the heaviest rainfall areas -- which would be closest to the Shore.  Given that the storm will be moving a bit quicker than Sandy did and will not be as large in size, the duration of the storm will be shorter.  However, it's not going to help recovery efforts much when more rain and wind will occur across those communities hardest hit by the storm.