Thursday, November 15, 2012

Coastal Trending Away From Coast

Yesterday's modeling showed a pronounced shift towards the Turkey Week coastal low taking a track out farther out in the Atlantic and away from our region. Last night's modeling (GFS and Euro) both continue that trend and make it more pronounced -- shifting the low south and farther east on track as high pressure aloft over New England, combined with an unfavorable upper level pattern for storm intensification, lead to a modeled storm solution that's farther east and southeast than past runs.

The projected path of the coastal low looks to be a few hundred miles away from us and more a concern for Bermuda and those at Barnegat on Monday and Monday night.  Because the low may still be a rather large low when it does develop, there will be a bit of an onshore flow across the Shore that gets enhanced due to its interaction with the high over New England.  This may very well result in a breezy Sunday and Monday at the Shore, perhaps inland.  It also wouldn't surprise me if skies are mostly cloudy or cloudy across South Jersey or Delaware on either Sunday or Monday -- but precipitation is looking less likely with each successive model run.

The only drawback with the onshore gradient is that we could see a cycle or two of minor coastal flooding at the Shore, especially at the susceptible spots where the beaches took the largest pounding from Sandy.  This may be the only real concern out of the weekend coastal and it would be caused less by the low and more by the wind and pressure gradient between it and the New England high.

Looking farther out in the pattern, it does appear that our tranquil pattern holds out into next week.  The next "maybe" system could be a weak cool front that crosses the region on Thanksgiving or Black Friday, with the possibility of a stronger system at month's end.