Saturday, November 24, 2012

Could It Be Coolest November Since '97?

November's chilled tranquility is evident in the fact that this will be the first month since last August where temperatures will finish below average. Through yesterday, Philadelphia is 3.2 degrees below average so far this month. With the likelihood of below average temperatures continuing through month's end, November will likely end up in the three to four degree below average range.

In fact, this November may the coolest in fifteen years.

Our monthly temperature through Thursday was 45.8 degrees, which already puts it 4th coolest since 2000.  Given that temperatures over the next eight days will likely end up below average by a couple to few degrees, temperatures could end up by month's end below 2000's mark of 45.4 degrees...and giving us our coolest November in fifteen years in Philadelphia.

The list of chilled Novembers over the last 25 years is a hodgepodge of cold and warm winters -- 1997-98 was one of the warmest on record thanks to a powerful El Nino, while 2000-01 and 2002-03 were both below average on temperatures and above average on snowfall.  This hodgepodge through history in wake of a mild October was outlined last week, showing the tendency for a winter that's rather "average" overall with a couple of exceptions (95-96 was one of those).

In any case, the next week or so will cement our first below average month since last year and may result in our coolest November in fifteen years.