Sunday, November 25, 2012

Forecast for Monday, November 26, 2012

An area of low pressure will continue to evolve across the Southern Plains and slide northeastward. It will be sliding into the Mid-Atlantic, making a brief visit on Tuesday, before moving off the coast late Tuesday Night. Cold and dry air is holding strong and this will suppress the storm track to our south which should result in a lighter precipitation “event”, but also a colder event.

Temperature profiles should be cold enough to support mostly snow north and west of Philadelphia. Around the Philadelphia Metropolitan area, it will be a battle between snow and rain with borderline temperatures. However, if the snow comes down heavy enough for a few hours, it may drag enough cold air to the surface for this to be also mostly snow here as well. That is really the only wild card here as I see it. Once you get south of the Atlantic City Expressway and east of the Route 72 and Route 539 in New Jersey, it may be rain with some snow mixing in at times...but we will watch the profile temperatures and intensity here too. Should the storm track shift further south and east over the next few model runs, the snowier areas on Tuesday could also shift a bit to the south and east with less snow in Eastern Pennsylvania.

Overall, an “average” of a trace to as much as three inches in the snowiest locales is anticipated across our region. Any brief banding could result in higher amounts. This looks like a fast moving system and the precipitation could only last for about six hours. The intensity doesn’t look all that intense and you also have borderline temperatures.  This looks to be a wet snow and where snow totals approach two or three inches, you could have some tree limbs knocked down. The HPC gives portions of the region at least a 10% chance of snowfall greater than four inches. If you are disappointed that this isn’t going to be a big snow, well two shots of snow with November not even over isn’t bad at all!

Some moderating temperatures are expected next weekend, but this could come with some unsettled weather. In the meantime, keep with us for the latest on Tuesday.