Saturday, November 24, 2012

Forecast for Sunday, November 25, 2012

For tonight, the strong wind gusts from the west-northwest are creating lake effect snow showers and flurries across the northern half of our region. I am watching a lake effect snow streamer which may clip the southern Poconos and Lehigh Valley into North Central NJ and produce a localized coating of snow. The winds should diminish some after dark and this should help to diminish the fetch off of the Great Lakes reducing the coverage of snow showers and flurries along with the clouds.

We will be watching a storm system expected to move from the Northwestern United States into the Central Plains early this week. This system or a piece of it could impact us around Tuesday. Some computer model guidance continues to suggest at least enough phasing to have an area of low pressure strengthen and move up near or along the Mid-Atlantic coastline. However, other model guidance suggests not much phasing resulting in a weak system that stays to our south which may clip the southern half of our area. There is going to be a lot of cold and dry air in place. This would give the suggestion of either a further offshore track for a potential coastal low or support the idea of a southern clipper. So I am thinking that this may end up either way being a colder scenario with more of our region being impact by wintry precipitation types, if any precipitation at all. The temperatures and precipitation type (should we receive some measurable precipitation) will be very dependent on the exact track and strength of this energy and so we will have to monitor this event closely over the next few days. Right now, I am thinking this is a minor to worst case moderate "event" vs. "storm".

Otherwise, the next few days prior to the system look to be sunny, chilly, and brisk. The temperatures this upcoming week look to be cold overall and possibly may end up colder than currently forecast if we end up being in the wake of a departing coastal low.