Sunday, November 11, 2012

Potential For Coastal Storm Next Week

Outside of a cool front crossing the region early on Tuesday with showers, the week's weather will be very mundane and the break sorely needed around here as New Jersey has been popped with two bad storms in the past two weeks.  Tuesday's front is rather benign -- a round of rain, a period of showers, but nothing significant or nasty that will impact us.

The next possible system on the horizon is a little more than a week out -- computer modeling is hinting at the development of a coastal storm in the Atlantic that may come pretty close to the East Coast.  Details and track are still highly uncertain but the GFS (below, first map) and Euro (second map) are showing something.

Last night's Euro representation is much weaker and broad next Sunday night but as Thanksgiving week approaches this run of the model shows the storm system nudging northeast through the Atlantic, safely out to sea.  The GFS brings it close enough to the East Coast to kick up surf and make it breezy and rainy for a time at the coast on Monday or Tuesday...but there is a lack of consistency in impact on both models.  One run of the GFS sends the brunt to New England, another puts it over us.  Today's midday Euro (which I didn't show you) shows a storm spinning off of the Carolinas for the middle of next week.  We'll see what plays out over the coming week.  We have a fair amount of time but the Shore should keep a half an eye on this one.

In terms of long term cold, the models aren't showing much of it.  Seasonal (for November) chill is in the cards after Tuesday's front -- 50's for highs, 30's for lows, with nothing long term suggesting a nasty outbreak of cold in the coming days or out two weeks.  After Thanksgiving, the pattern may shift colder as some indications show some blocking setting up at the end of November.