Friday, November 16, 2012

Recapping The Chilly First Half of November

Temperatures so far in November are pretty chilly compared to average. Through yesterday, we're at 45.8 degrees for a monthly average temperature, 4.4 degrees below average to date. If we held that 45.8 through month's end, we would end up nearly two degrees below average. Given the trend over the next two weeks is for slightly below normal moderating to around normal later next week, it looks pretty likely we will have a below average month on temperatures in Philadelphia for the first time since August 2011.  This November has the potential of being the coolest November since at least 2008, perhaps going back as far as 1997, depending on temperatures over the next two weeks.  Taking a look at the coolest Novembers in recent years, in November '97 the temperature was 44.4, it was 45.4 in 2000, and 45.5 in 2008.

We topped 70 once -- on the 12th -- and had our first official freeze in Philadelphia on November 6th (32 for a low). For those who like it cold, we've been below average on 12 of 15 days so far -- our most persistent stretch of below average temperatures this year so far.

Rainfall has been modest so far, just 0.54" in Philadelphia (which is 0.86" below average so far).  November is one of our driest months on average in terms of precipitation historically as average is just over two and a half inches before month's end -- the trend again this month will be for a generally dry month although a larger storm system is possible late in the month according to the longer range trends.