Sunday, November 25, 2012

Talkin' About Tuesday's Precipitation

Tuesday may bring the region a varied mix of precipitation based on location as a wave of low pressure will track close enough and the air will be cold enough for some wintry precipitation in parts of the region. It does not look like snow for all as the lower layers of the atmosphere for those south and east of I-95 will be modestly mild enough for rain.  However, for those of you in the city and northwest the potential for flakes is legit...although precipitation will be rather modest.

The Euro, which a couple of days ago was showing next to no precipitation for Tuesday's "event", has trended back in the last few runs to show a bit of wintry precipitation potential as the model has nudged the track of the low pressure wave a bit closer to our region.  The GFS follows suit and both models are showing precipitation moving into the region during Tuesday morning, continuing into the evening models as this wave of energy shoots through.   The GFS is slightly more robust with precipitation and has a slightly larger expanse of precipitation to the northwest than the Euro but the difference between the two isn't terribly large around here.

Snow could stick on grass -- maybe on cars -- but given the likelihood that this is a daytime event it may be a bit tough to get snow to stick on major roads unless we get a heavier burst of snowfall to occur.  Most of the modeling doesn't suggest precipitation will be that terribly heavy so the bulk of the event probably features snow struggling to stick on main roads but perhaps sticking on your driveway, your side street, or your sidewalk in addition to those grassy surfaces.

The Euro's snowfall output (via Wunderground) shows the potential for a 1-3 type event to the city's north and west on Tuesday afternoon.  The city could get in on an inch of this but it's straddling the rain/snow line pretty closely in the GFS and Euro as of this morning.  We're about 48 hours out from this event (timed to start Tuesday AM) so the potential for some waffling on the rain/snow line is possible.  Odds of a big storm happening are not at this point.

It's a minor, modest event that will likely be more an impact on your yard than anything but the potential for a couple of inches of early season snow certainly can't be overlooked for those of you who like snow!