Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Winter Forecast Season 2012-13

Annually, we track each TV station's winter forecast and provide a comparison of them all at winter's end to see who did well and whose forecast was probably best served being left on the cutting room floor and not making it to air.  The first two winter outlooks were issued last night in the 2012-13 winter forecast "season" from the Philadelphia TV stations.

For sake of "average" in snowfall -- the average snow in Philadelphia in winter is 21.8" in a given winter.  So far, the forecasts haven't strayed terribly far from that given El Nino is el fizzle this winter and that we will need to rely predominately on blocking patterns in the Arctic and North Atlantic to 'deliver the goods' so-to-speak.   We will update and "bump" this post up with each successive winter outlook that gets released.

CBS 3 (November 8th) -- CBS 3's winter outlook calls for between 22 and 28" of snow for the coming winter, with the bulk of the snow (9-13") in February.  Temperatures will be average in December and January, below average in February.

Fox 29 (November 8th) -- Fox 29's winter outlook predicts an average snowfall winter (18-24"), with their snowiest period forecast in our historically snowiest time of winter -- late January through late February, including President's Day and Valentine's Day.

6 ABC (November 15th) -- Channel 6's winter forecast predicts snowfall of 24-32" for the upcoming winter, slightly above average. Their forecast calls for a highly varied winter between mild stretches and cold with the potential for several nor'easters.  They are calling for a very cold start over December's first two weeks.

NBC 10 (November 20th ) -- NBC 10's winter forecast is the snowiest of those in Philadelphia, projecting 30-35" of snow for the coming winter.  Temperatures overall will come out to a degree above average, with February the coldest and snowiest month to average.  Glenn is basing his forecast on the Eurasian snowfall surplus over Russia and the correlation between that and above average snow across the East.