Monday, December 03, 2012

The Next Bigger Storm Next Week

This week's weather generally ends up on the milder side of average. We'll cool down after Tuesday night, with a weaker front moving through, but temperatures will remain pretty typical for early December. The main jet stream will set up just to our north and a pair of storm systems will traverse the region between the weekend and early next week. The first looks to be modest as of now and should move through on Saturday.

The second one, timed for Tuesday, looks to be stronger.  As of now, both look to produce rain as the second storm tracks to our west and northwest (mild track for us).

The trick in getting the second storm to follow a colder track would be to produce a stronger first storm on Saturday, one that is able to pull the main jet stream down behind the low and allow for a bit more colder air to slip into the region.  This would, theoretically, increase the chances for some snow closer to the region provided the track wasn't suppressed too much.  However, the odds of this colder reality taking place is pretty small as of now.

The most likely scenario right now is a mild trend continuing into next week, with the second storm bringing a cold shot through as colder air over Canada drops south for the second half of next week.  The pattern isn't supporting anything Arctic in nature with the cold shot and it seems to be a shorter duration shot of cold compared to what we've dealt with much of November.

For those that like it mild, December's first half is shaping up as a milder month and despite the cold/mild oscillation later this week and in the beginning of next, temperatures look to average above normal overall through the mid month mark.