Sunday, December 16, 2012

Train Of Waves

The next several days will be active from a weather standpoint but not cold as the upper level pattern is pushing the storm track for low pressure to our west. The result of this is that we'll have three rounds of rain over the next several days, with temperatures that will continue to remain above average through at least Friday...although the weekend looks to be colder at this point (although not Arctic).

We have a wave moving through tonight with showers -- nothing significant but it will be damp, dreary, and probably foggy around the region as low level moisture streams in off of the Atlantic.  This will set up the wave that moves through the region on Monday night into Tuesday.  Rain tracks through, generally scattered in nature, but nothing too significant.  One of the problems with fast-moving nature of this pattern is that storm systems are moving too fast to organize, strengthen, and draw cold air down from Canada.  The pattern produces weaker, fast-moving disturbances that produce a fair amount of shower activity or steady rain in the region...but can't quite draw in the cold air that snowlovers want.

However, a bit more buckling in the jet stream *may* be possible late this week as the third wave of the train, Thursday into Friday, looks to be a stronger storm.  The jet slows down a bit but it will be positioned too far to our northwest.  The result is a storm system that pushes the primary low through the Lakes.  A secondary wave may try to form on the front as it pushes east Thursday night but it will not take over as the dominant feature.  This means....yep...more rain, as well as a bit more wind with this storm system compared to the ones we'll get through Tuesday.  Also, being on the warmer side of the storm system means more mild weather ahead of this front.

In the wake of the frontal passage, more seasonal type weather returns for the weekend before Christmas but rumors of "Arctic" cold are exaggerated.  If you follow along here a fair amount, we've made sure to point out that any cold shots in advance of Christmas would not be arctic and "typical" but nothing overly chilly although our thoughts of highs struggling to reach 40 are off by a few degrees.  This looks like a low/mid 40's for highs type of pattern for next weekend as of this point.  Dreaming of a White Christmas will remain just that -- and you'll probably have to travel to Maine or Minnesota for your snow cover.