Sunday, January 20, 2013

Forecast for Monday, January 21, 2013

Snow showers and flurries associated with an arctic front are expected to impact the region on Monday Afternoon through Monday Evening. It is even possible that this front pushes a snow squall or two through parts of the region as well. The best lift associated with this front and the most ideal temperatures for the snow to stick will be across the northern areas. Then as this front pushes offshore, a weak wave of low pressure will develop perhaps throwing back some additional snow showers our way. This may benefit areas east of Philadelphia the most. There is certainly a convective look to the front, so this could be more of a “localized” snow accumulation event vs. “widespread” light accumulations. I think we will be talking about mostly dustings and coatings of snow, but there could be one or two spots that see an inch or two of snow when this is all said and done. Also, the Poconos will likely see persistent snow showers and flurries as the lake effect snow machine ramps up later on Monday Night resulting in higher accumulation there. I am also allowing for some light rain to mix with the snow initially as the temperature profile seems as though it could allow it at first depending on the timing of the first pieces of precipitation.

Lake effect snow showers and flurries may continue to move across the area into Wednesday. The best chance would be closer to the Poconos. There will be a reinforcing shot of cold air on Wednesday which could spawn another round of snow showers or even a snow squall.

An area of low pressure will likely track eastward passing through or just south of the area on Friday. The models continue to waffle with the track of the storm system which can only be expected this far out and especially this winter as the models have been having difficulty handling the weather pattern as of late. The further north this low passes by, the greater the potential for this system to bring mixed precipitation rather than just all snow. My personal belief is that we will have a clearer picture of this system once that reinforcing shot of cold air arrives during the middle of the week.