Saturday, January 19, 2013

Next Friday's Potential

I joked on our Facebook comment about this storm last night that our posting about it might be the "kiss of death" for snow lovers but computer modeling is showing that the prospect of a storm system crossing the region next Friday and that there's potential for at least some snow for some of us.

Given it's a week out, modeling differences between the Euro and GFS abound on track and details but both models show low pressure tracking close to the region.  The Euro, shown below, is the warmer of the two models and has rain south and east of the city, with the city riding the fence, and snow to the north and west.

Sounds familiar to the "usual" meme of winter around here, regardless of year.  This forecast from the Euro model is a bit different and a bit milder to its previous look yesterday afternoon.  Yesterday afternoon's forecast showed snow for everyone but the Shore.  At least it's been in the snow camp a couple of times.

The GFS, which showed warmth yesterday, is now showing a colder storm system as the track of low pressure was shifted from Pennsylvania to North Carolina.  It's a pretty large shift over a couple of forecast runs from the GFS but we've gone from a rainy solution to a snowy one across most of the region if this run of the GFS is right.

It's a week out so modeling hype a week out does not necessarily equal reality.  That said, this is a decent chance for some snow around here, arguably the best chance for most of the region for the winter so far.  We will be exiting our coldest airmass of the winter so far and, on the GFS solution, high pressure is modeled over Ontario to help nudge in additional chill.

One thing to keep an eye on between now and then is the potential for a couple of weak clippers crossing the area.  The first is Monday afternoon and evening, which sets up our cold for midweek.  A second clipper is modeled on the GFS for Wednesday evening as being a bit stronger in last night's run. This second clipper would help "reinforce" a colder scenario for Friday's storm system.  The Euro is much weaker in its depiction of this Wednesday setup (it has a ripple of energy depicted aloft but no surface reflection).

We'll keep an eye on everything over the coming week...we're not sounding alarms and "guaranteeing" snow but the pattern is now more favorable for it and the possibility exists for snow to close out the work week next week.