Wednesday, January 09, 2013

Signs Of Cold Continue To Show Up

We mentioned a few days ago that a colder regime was due in the middle to latter half of next week.  Modeling is still showing it -- likely in the Wednesday/Thursday timeframe of next week if the Euro is to be believed or next Thursday/Friday timeframe on the GFS.

As of now, modeling indicates that this cold will not be severe, brutal, record-smashing...but we could see a night or two where we get our lowest low temperatures of the winter season so far.  Getting below 25 has been a tough task this winter but if this modeled cold shot plays out, we could beat that mark next weekend.

One of the things speculated here last week was the potential for the cold shot to not be as severe as modeled and that the core of cold would miss the region.  Modeling has varied on placement of the core -- initially dumping most of it into the Plains...with today's Euro ensembles generally keeping the cold north of our region and scooting it east through Southern Canada.

Odds favor a cold shot of air late next week in the Eastern US

This still results in a colder pattern over our region at the end of next week but we're talking 30's for highs type cold if the ensemble average is reality.  The operational Euro has shown some stronger tendencies with the surge of cold but we are ten days out and on the fringe of the model...reality will likely mute this surge of chill a bit as we close in.

Just be forewarned that the mild pattern we're experiencing now will not last.  The trend towards colder may take two, perhaps three bouts of showers or storm systems to push through the region but we should see that push of cold take place in the middle or later parts of next week around here.

You can see the operational Euro from yesterday up above showing next Wednesday's first fingers of arctic air pushing down into the Midwest and Northern Plains...the operational is stronger (like we mentioned) in the push of cold and puts us into a bit of a freezer by next weekend with 20's for highs (colder at night) but given it's ten days out, we will see that moderate somewhat as we approach reality.  That said, it won't be 60...and will be a bit more like January around here by the end of next week.