Friday, January 25, 2013

Slightly Revised Snowfall Totals

Winter weather advisories are still out for much of the Philly metro and points south, with the exception the northwestern halves of the suburban counties.  This evening's snow is not supposed to be a big deal in terms of accumulations...however, with it likely to start during the evening rush or just before it west of the city, your commute could be a good bit slower and perhaps slipperier than usual.

Modeling has nudged slightly drier with this event overnight, especially to the north and northeast of the city.  Dry air is one of the factors at play, as well as that we're dealing with two pieces of energy fusing together to form a storm system for the Atlantic to deal with.  This lil event is modeled to become an Atlantic powerhouse low once it tracks past Newfoundland in a couple of days.  It won't be a powerhouse or even a boathouse of a storm later's a nice little snow that hits at the PM rush.

Cue the million of salt yard shots on TV through the day.

Timing is still generally the same -- starts after 2 PM west of the city, after 5 PM east, and during the PM rush in Philadelphia.  Should last about four hours or so.

The energy transfer allows this northern batch of snow to fizzle as it approaches and moves through, allowing the southern energy to take hold and become the dominant play on the snow field this afternoon and evening.  If anyone is getting three inches of snow, the most likely places are south of Ocean City-Smyrna in New Jersey and Delaware, respectively.  I think most of us are in line for an inch or two of fluffy flakes that can be swept away and swept off your car and walkway.

Farther northeast, due to dry air and the southern energy becoming more dominant, coating type snows are the most likely result and it wouldn't shock me if it ended up as just flurries as dry air prevents some of that snow that's falling aloft from hitting the ground.