The Storm Prediction Center has portions of the region in a slight risk for severe criteria winds with the front itself -- the thunder aspect of severe weather is not likely but strong winds are possible around the region later today. The best chances for severe criteria gusts from the front's squall line are along the Shore (pre-front) and to our west and southwest across South Central PA down towards DC (with the front). It's important to note the differences here -- the severe risks to our west and southwest will be expected with the squall line while our wind threat locally and at the Shore is due more from the robust low level jet that will zip overhead tonight (winds 5000 feet up modeled to gust to over 90 mph).
The front's timing has slowed a little bit compared to prior predictions, which means that the lion's share of rain and wind with this storm system looms for tonight after 7 or 8 PM. A few showers or a band or two of rain will probably pass through Central into Northeast Pennsylvania during the day but the city and points southeast should remain drizzly at worst but avoid shower activity until after dinner. Those showers will push in from the west in advance of the front, with the squall line passing through the region after Midnight from west to east. The squall will feature a quick shot of gusty wind but heavy rain with it...and the lion's share of rain with the storm system probably falls with the front as it moves through.
Rainfall has nudged a bit less rainy in the last 24 hours in modeling but the region is on track for three-quarters of an inch to an inch of rain on average, with perhaps two inches in spots northwest. Runoff into the usual suspect streams remains an issue due to frozen ground but we may see a bit less rain than what was modeled prior. We'll see on this part of things.
In terms of the storm itself, it is more an issue for tonight for the region, not for today in our area. We'll provide another update on this this evening.