Thursday, February 14, 2013

Another Nickel, Another Dime Of Snow Possible Early Saturday

A couple of nice days are ahead of us -- the balance of today and tomorrow are both shaping up as nice days locally.  However, the trend in the weather pattern shifts back to a much colder one starting Friday evening as a cold front slices through the region.  A wave of energy will travel along the frontal boundary, likely to fire off some light to steady snow along it late Friday night and early Saturday morning, perhaps again starting as some light rain.

The details aren't completely set in stone but there is increasing agreement that some snow falls pretty close to or over the region after Midnight and during the early morning hours on Saturday.  Snow could thump pretty solidly, if the NAM is to be believed, close to daybreak as this system moves through.

Most of the models show something similar although vary on temperature profiles at the surface.  With a bit of difference on temperature and coming off of a mild day on Friday, we could see some rain initially fall in spots before transitioning quickly over to snow.  I don't see this being as rainy as last night's system but I can see spots start briefly as rain or rain/sleet mix before that transition takes place.

How much are we talking about?  Generally another one to three inch type event...some spots might nudge either end of the range depending on how much (if any) rain falls on the front end or, if it's all snow and the dynamics are a little more robust, we might see totals on the higher side or perhaps notch above this one to three range.

It's certainly not the biggest event to come down the pike this winter season and it fits in the theme of nickel and dime snows for most of us.  Given the timing of late Friday night and early Saturday, impacts around the region should be really minimal although those who are out will have to deal with some slick travel (wet snow) in areas where snow is steadiest.

Edit: That said, if the midday GFS is right, we might have a different ballgame. We'll talk about its differences to the rest of the guidance (which is still pretty consistent) later this evening.