As a warm front approaches in the early morning hours, rain
and areas of drizzle will develop across the region. However, temperatures in
some areas at the surface will be at or below freezing when the rain begins to
fall allowing for the potential of freezing rain. The Lehigh Valley, Poconos,
North-Central New Jersey, Lancaster, and the North and Western suburbs have the
best shot at observing at least an hour or two of icing. Even a trace of ice
can cause hazardous road conditions. So the morning commute could be very slow
and slick. The transition from freezing rain to rain is expected to occur
during the morning commute south of the Lehigh Valley and the Poconos. It may not
changeover to liquid rain in the Poconos until early afternoon.
With warmer air riding over a cold ground and in some areas
a snow pack, fog will probably develop. Some of the fog may be dense.
After the soaking rain the other day for most areas,
followed by the snow, areas with a melting snowpack could experience areas of poor
drainage flooding with a 0.25” to 0.50” of new rain expected. Also, drains may
be blocked by the snow.
Temperatures remain tricky for Monday. The warm front may
slow considerably when it begins to encounter the areas with the snowpack and
the higher terrain. MOS guidance continues to show Philadelphia International
Airport making it into the fifties. It is possible here given that only 1.4
inches of snow fell the other day. Areas north of here may be stuck in the
forties where the snow depth is considerably greater. There is a bust potential
here, especially with low clouds and fog expected. A cold front sweeps in later
on Monday Night. Blustery conditions are expected to follow for Tuesday.
We continue to watch a potential system for Wednesday
Evening into Thursday Morning. This system may be a glancing blow or perhaps
something more significant. The models continue to not by in agreement on the
track and intensity. Rain, sleet, and wet snow is possible should we see
precipitation. Another potential system may impact us next weekend.
