Saturday, February 09, 2013

Forecast for Sunday, February 10, 2013

A warm front try to move through the region on Monday and this frontal boundary will cause a round of precipitation to develop and move through our region late Sunday Night and especially early on Monday Morning. Freezing rain or rain is possible, but it likely will be on the light side. The higher chances for freezing rain will be where there remains decent snow cover by Sunday Night or in the higher terrain. Right now this looks to be north and northeast of Philadelphia. Even a trace of ice can cause hazardous driving conditions, so we will have to monitor the precipitation as it may impact the Monday Morning commute.

How fast do temperatures respond in the wake of the warm front and does the warm front struggle to move through the area as it encounters the snow-pack  The MOS Guidance suggests 50 to 55 degrees for Monday at Philadelphia International Airport. The airport only 1.4" of snow. So this is possible here. But just north and northeast of here is where there is some uncertainty. Areas of fog also may be an issue on Monday. So right now, forecasting 50 degrees is reasonable for the airport. But this can easily be a bust and locations north or northeast of here may not make it out of the forties. A cold front comes through Monday Evening with additional showers.

We might be impacted by a storm system on Wednesday. There is very low confidence regarding the eventual storm track of a potential area of low pressure and this leads to very low confidence on the type and intensity of any possible precipitation. Without getting fancy, I indicated a mixture of rain, sleet, and wet snow is possible. If the system is stronger and can pull in some cold air, a snowier system cannot be ruled out.