Tuesday, February 05, 2013

Friday's Precip Mash Up

Friday's system has come into somewhat better, at least for now, consensus, between computer models and the outlook seems to suggest a varied hybrid of light snow and rain across the region, with steadier precipitation down to our south and east as southern energy intensifies and becomes the dominant player with this storm system as it moves northeast and absorbs an approaching clipper-type low that will track through the Great Lakes.

The Euro solution of the past several days, which showed a stronger storm exploding off of the Carolinas, has been very consistent on track but the model has steadily weakened the rate of intensification with the low in the last few runs as the GFS is now intensifying, slowly, the southern energy and tracking it closer to us.  Assuming both models tend to stay in agreement on track and detail, it looks like we're on track for a slopfest of light rain and light snow around the region on Friday.

The GFS is still weaker than Euro in detail but is showing the general idea of the southern low.

So what does this mean for the area?  Initially, it does look like we will receive some light snow on the front end of the storm system before temperatures aloft and at the surface warm and the transition to rain takes place for most of the region south of Allentown.  The southern low off of the Carolinas will continue to organize and track northeast.  As it organizes, colder air begins to drain back down as the storm pulls into the Atlantic, likely as precipitation comes to an end.

The Poconos look to be in line for mainly light snows at this point although some mix with rain is possible.  Allentown and south will likely go from light snow to light rain, with the Lehigh Valley and Central Jersey seeing light rain end as light snow.  Precipitation does not overly robust for anyone north and west of I-95 as of now (this may change), with steadier precipitation southeast of I-95 that will mainly fall as rain.  This also will not be a terribly big storm system for us as it moves through the region since the Carolina low will be in the process of organizing.  This storm will be pretty intense for New England but since we will be in the organizing phases of it the likelihood of big snow locally is pretty low.  The operative word in the last two paragraphs for those of you north and northwest of Philadelphia is light, with rain the operative word south and east of the city.

That said, IF the southern energy does explode more rapidly, we could see a bit more snow on the back end for those of you along and north of I-95.  Climatology says that isn't as likely as a slopfest but it is something we will keep our eyes on.