Wednesday, February 27, 2013

The Next Bit of Modeling Hype

In the wake of last night's rains dropping about a half inch in the city, an inch along the coast in Atlantic City, and icy rain and snow across the Poconos, a generally quiet but chilled several day stretch of weather awaits.   Might be a few showers around tomorrow but by and large, the next week will be more dry than not.

The next system of note in model hypeville is next Wednesday into Thursday.  The models show a clipper-type low drive through the Ohio Valley and swing towards the Carolinas.  From there, modeling diverges tremendously in terms of results and track.  The Euro is the aggressor and shows the storm intensifying into a major storm system off of the Virginia coastline, moving slowly eastward and dropping a healthy amount of snow (mostly) across the region.

The GFS suppresses the storm system and sends it off of the South Carolina coastline, harmlessly out into the Atlantic and doesn't do much for us...but brings rain and snow to the Carolinas in the middle of the week.

There's a rather large difference, not just at the surface (the Euro wave is stronger to begin with) but also aloft (where mid level energy pieces are positioned and their relation to the surface low) with the two storm systems in terms of how they play out.  The Euro is the "perfect mix" of ingredients for East Coast snow in March. A week out, it's beautiful on paper but not something to pin certainty to given modeling has provided its fair share of model hype this winter that hasn't panned out in the seven to ten day range.   That said, the Euro's track record of being historically better is something that snowlovers can have going for them.

It's something we'll keep an eye on over the coming days but there's no need to sound alarm bells of hype and ensue mass lines at the ACME for bread and milk. Just know that if this trend holds on the Euro, we'll probably have something to keep an eye on for snowlovers next week at this time.