Saturday, February 02, 2013

Updating Tonight's Clipper

Tonight's clipper doesn't have the same level of convective and dynamic pop that the Friday system had so the odds of a seven inch snowfall are pretty damn low. However, some light snows are possible tonight and we could pick up an inch or two in most spots. Helps that most of the energy with this system comes through tonight so getting snow to stick will certainly not be an issue.

We'll see the first fingers of this system approaching the region late this afternoon to our west -- and it could be snowing lightly in Harrisburg and York by 4 or 5 PM as the system approaches.   My guess is that snow showers and flurries move into the Philly metro after 6 or 7 tonight.

As the system approaches the region, a second wave of energy from the southwest pushes northeast and across the Delmarva, sending snow through Delaware and South Jersey after 8 or 9 PM tonight. Another wave back in the Appalachians pushes through the region overnight and ends up becoming the "big" player (tongue in cheek since it doesn't look terribly dynamic) and will probably generate the steadiest accumulations of snow, generally along coastal sections of New Jersey.  Monmouth and Ocean counties may do pretty well on this event tonight and early tomorrow as this system crosses and then fires up along the coast.

As the Appalachian wave gets going in the Atlantic, snow showers probably fire up and pivot through New Jersey, perhaps the Poconos and Lehigh Valley, tomorrow morning.  There may be breaks in the snow shower activity tonight and tomorrow so if there's a lull or a flurry period overnight, that's ok.  It's going to be a Humpty Dumpty type of clipper -- broken pieces moving through, bringing smatterings of snow through overnight.

This is not a robust system -- some spots probably get coating type accumulations -- best guess would be that occurs to the southwest of Philadelphia.  Most of the rest of us are in line for about an inch, perhaps up to two, of accumulation.  Monmouth and Ocean Counties might have some three inch totals out of this.  Again, not as much in the way of dynamics as before but there's enough there to pop some light snows across the region starting this evening and continuing off and on through tomorrow morning.