Saturday, March 16, 2013

Monday's Next Threat of Pocono Snow & Rain For Us

So, Monday is going to bring another storm system to the region. This one will provide some chill on the front end of the storm and areas to the city's north and northwest may have some snow on the front end of the storm before a milder push of air works its way up the coast and transitions snow to rain.

Modeling shows precipitation working in on Monday afternoon from the southwest.  Locally, temperatures may be just mild enough to prevent much snow from falling although it could be a brief mix of rain and snowflakes or sleet pellets.  For the city and immediate burbs, this transitions quickly to nothing but rain and that's what we'll get for the balance of the storm.

North and west is a different matter -- modeling does show a period of snow across the Lehigh Valley, Berks County, and Poconos.  For the Lehigh Valley and Berks, that snow on Monday afternoon and evening will transition over to rain at some point but it's possible an inch or two inches coat some lawns and cars across elevated terrain with a coating perhaps in the valleys before you guys transition to rain.

The Poconos may be a different story -- especially the farther north you go.  Colder air will hold a bit longer over the elevated terrain up to our north and the result is more snow.  Modeling varies on how well that cold holds in place but most models agree that a transition from snow to perhaps icy rain to rain takes place through the course of Monday evening.

So, how much snow are talking about in the Poconos? The Euro suggests about 2-5", with the highest totals above I-80. The GFS suggests 3-7" (see graphic below), with that inch or two possible down into the Lehigh Valley and Berks.

Again, for us in Philly the lion's share of this storm is rain, with about an inch of rain possible according to the GFS and Euro.