Thursday, March 21, 2013

Talking About Sunday & Monday's "Potential"

In the midst of this chilled pattern, the potential for more wintry "fun" presents itself late Sunday and Monday with another storm system that is poised to develop and move through the South and the southern portions of the Mid Atlantic.  It's a similar storm in modeling than the winter storm that wasn't very wintry back at the beginning of March in that the storm will track to the region's south.   That storm was significant in terms of coastal impact from wind and coastal flooding but its snowy side was, well, less than noteworthy.  This storm will have some minor differences in track and detail but the concept of a storm passing to our south and southeast is still on the board.

This storm will not be as intense, at least as it's modeling out to be, and the impacts at the Shore should be less significant than what occurred in the earlier storm. There could still be some gusty winds and perhaps one high tide cycle of minor flooding on Sunday night...the latter is still up in the air.  However, it does present the possibility of producing some light snows across the region on Sunday night and Monday morning for some portions of the region.

The GFS is relatively modest with its depiction of the storm and is modest in how much snow this produces -- only producing a couple of inches of snow around the region at most, with coating to dusting accumulations more the rule.

The Euro is a bit more robust on showing the potential for a couple of steadier bands of snow...and has been consistently showing the prospect of a bit more snowfall to our west and south on Sunday night into Monday morning.  We're not talking huge accumulations but it would be a few inches IF the Euro is right.  Something to keep in mind -- the Euro is a bit more robust on its intensification and thus ramps up the snow amounts a bit more than the GFS.

Unlike the dud (snow-wise) of a storm back on March 6th, this system would work through at night, which presents a better window of opportunity for snow to stick since the sun's energy will not be around to negate the precipitation.   The best chances, as of now, for snow accumulation may be along and south of the Pennsylvania Turnpike and I-195.  If the Euro is to be believed, the "few inches" potential lines up across Delaware and South Jersey.  The setup is still pretty marginal despite the few additional factors in favor of snow...if the timing of the storm delays a bit into Monday or if the rate of storm intensification is modest, we could see a scenario much more like the GFS (or worse for snow lovers).