Friday, March 08, 2013

Tuesday's Front Ends Mild Run

The weekend offers a nice mild spell before the pattern returns to a crisp mid and latter portion of next week after a cold front crosses the region on Tuesday.  There's pretty good agreement on details with the front's timing -- it will cross the region during Tuesday, likely the morning hours.  There is some difference in detail, however.

One of the runs of the GFS brings the front through with one single wave of low pressure, bringing rain to the region late Monday night into Tuesday morning.  It doesn't appear to be a huge soaker but a round of showers, perhaps a steadier rain, appear possible IF this model is right.  The Euro, below, is a bit different in one of its runs yesterday as it showed the low weaker, farther northeast over New England, with a second wave of low pressure back across the South.  This wave scoots through the Carolinas before going out into the Atlantic and doesn't impact us but it is a different look.  Last night's run was very similar to the GFS outlined above, so the 'split' look is a bit of an outlier.

Details matter little at this point but know that the general timing at this point for the end of warmth appears to be Tuesday.  That seems pretty well established.  Until the front, temperatures will be mild...50's, perhaps even 60's on Monday for highs. It's the warmest weather we've had since at least mid February and perhaps going back to the end of January when we hit 68 on the 30th. A tease of Spring!