Sunday, March 24, 2013

Warnings & Advisories For Late Tonight & Monday

Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories are up for the region for late tonight and Monday.  This is a very tricky and very low confidence forecast but there is potential that heavier bands of precipitation could set up and potential that it *could* snow to the point where these warnings are justified.

It's not our place to judge the warnings or advisories on the site -- we're not going to -- but given the potential and forecast from the National Weather Service for warning criteria snowfall (four inches) in South Jersey, the warnings are up.

Advisories are up for I-95 and points west, northwest, and also the state of Delaware, plus Cape May County.  Most of the advisory areas are expected to see two to four inches according to the National Weather Service.

What is the reasoning according to the Weather Service?  They're banking on the low dew points in South Jersey to help aid in cooling of the atmosphere as precipitation moves in tonight.  This, according to them, will help drop temperatures to a sufficiently low enough point to allow rain to change to snow.

That's certainly a possibility.  If precipitation is steady enough and heavy enough, we could see such a transition take place.  If it's not, it could be a mix or a sloppy light slush that accumulates in the region.

The Euro trended less robust on precipitation in the midday run today compared to past runs, while the GFS was a bit stronger and had a bit more precipitation, not all of it as snow.

Knowing all of this, it clearly is a fine line...and the warnings are there just in case the region ends up on the snowier side of that line.  Factoring in climatology, factoring in past performance this winter, has us pessimistic.  That said, it *could* happen...but in our eyes it's not a likely solution.

We'll provide an update on things in the morning.