Tuesday, March 26, 2013

Yo-Yo Start To April

It appears our long regional foray through the wilderness of sustained cold will gradually come to an end as we work through the end of March. While the balance of the month will feature slightly below average temperatures overall, temperatures will gradually ease milder between now and Easter Sunday...with a couple of above average days to close out the month looking a bit more likely as we progress.

This brings us to April, which will likely not feature the same level of sustained cold as part years...and likely will feature some rather impressive warmth as the yin and yang of Spring typically yields a pretty warm recovery.  There have only been three years since 1990 where we have failed to top 80 degrees at least once in the course of April -- 1993, 1997, and 2000.  In 2000's case, we hit 80 in March...leaving us '93 and '97 as the only years where we haven't crossed the 80 degree mark before the end of April.  Shows that modern climate statistically leans heavily on a warmth stretch at some point in the month.  Statistically, odds of 80 and warmer are greater the later in the month than earlier...but impressive warmth will likely manifest itself at some point over the course of the month.

Getting there is not going to be a steady progression, though.  It does look like there will be some roller coaster of temperatures over the course of the next few weeks.  Modeling does indicate that we bounce colder in the wake of our seasonal Easter, with a cold front crossing the region on Monday with showers. While the push of cold on models looks impressive at this point, it does look shorter in duration and only will last two to three days next week.

As you can tell by the time we get to next Friday, that shot of cold has been exorcised and a couple of mild days loom to close out the end of next week, with another shot of chill reloading in the Plains for the end of the weekend after Easter.  Such a pattern may seem to be the norm for the first half of April -- alternating between colder and milder, with gradually more mild and less chill as we progress.  It does look like a more typical April regime, unless this March's locked and loaded February-type pattern.