Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Potential for Strong Storms North of City This Evening

Our region is under a slight risk for severe weather for today and tonight as a frontal boundary to our north gets agitated with a disturbance that tracks east along it later today.  This is not as much for today as it is for this evening and tonight given the timing of the disturbance and its present location over Wisconsin.

Given our warm airmass, there's enough instability around to support thunderstorm development should it fire up later on but the best support for thunderstorms may ultimately reside north of the PA Turnpike, closer to the frontal boundary's position (which is likely going to set up north of the Lehigh Valley late this afternoon and tonight).

Thunderstorms may fire up late this afternoon across Central and Northern Pennsylvania, pushing east and southeast towards the Lehigh Valley and northern suburbs of Philadelphia this evening.  For instance, the NAM's higher resolution variant from Penn State places a stronger thunderstorm complex through the Lehigh Valley after 8 PM, pushing through the northern suburbs and on into Central Jersey.  The GFS is a bit farther south with those storms and the Euro a bit to the north of that.  That said, most of today will be dry...and most of the region will be dry as well.

Another high resolution model has the thunder threat run along the PA Turnpike and across the northern suburbs after 6 PM this evening.  Needless to say, timing is late day into the evening hours here...afternoon threat across Central Pennsylvania.

Any stronger storm that fires up runs the risk of producing gusty winds and perhaps hail...odds favor wind being a bit more of a threat in those stronger storms.  What this disturbance and its associated storms will do is drag the backdoor front a bit farther south...and make Thursday's forecast a real "treat" for forecasters and for the region as well given the front will bring much cooler air to the region once it slides south of your location.