Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Slight Potential For Coastal Low Early Next Week

After Friday night's frontal passage, a couple of days of decent weather awaits us in the region.  As we work into the early portions of next week, that may change as some modeling indicates the potential for a coastal low off of the East Coast in the Tuesday and Wednesday timeframe.

The Euro is a bit more aggressive with developing a coastal trough and stronger low off of the South Carolina coastline.  The result in the Euro is a steadier round of rain for Monday night through Tuesday night before that front in the Midwest pushes towards the East Coast for Thursday.  It sets up a rather unsettled stretch of weather if you believe the Euro for early next week.

The GFS is a far less aggressive model with both the coastal low and with the trough feature.  While an onshore flow is present, the low generally misses the Delaware Valley entirely although some clouds will graze the region.

The trend in the GFS has been away from this coastal feature and towards keeping it out in the Atlantic, with the Euro trending towards a less robust feature but one that still, for now, impacts the region.  That said, steering patterns are becoming more fickle as we progress through Spring and towards Summer....the wavelengths of troughs are shortening and patterns are becoming more tranquil in the Northern Hemisphere as we enter the warm season.  We'll keep an eye on this feature over the coming days in case trends suggest it is a rainy threat for next week.