Wednesday, May 22, 2013

Heavy Rain Potentially Bigger Threat For Tomorrow

We're not *yet* in any categorical severe risk area for Thursday -- the Storm Prediction Center does see the possibility for isolated severe (5% odds) and has us in a see text classification for the possibility of an isolated severe storm or two around the region.  Parameters are supportive of severe weather but given the amount of cloud cover projected to be around the region it will be tough for storms to get strong enough on a widespread scale.

That said, strong storms with gusty winds do pose a threat...and a couple of them could reach severe criteria tomorrow afternoon.  Wind does appear to be one of the byproducts of any stronger thunderstorms tomorrow.

The bigger threat, however, is heavy rainfall from tomorrow's storms.  Tropical and subtropical moisture is pushing northward up the East Coast in advance of the storm system, with PWAT's (how much rain could theoretically be squeezed out of the atmosphere in a given spot) running over 1.50 inches for most of tomorrow and approaching 1.75 inches in South Jersey tomorrow evening according to the GFS and NAM computer models.  That's a good chunk of moisture and we've been feeling that level of moisture around here the past couple of days...and will really feel it tomorrow as dew point values approach 70.

Any thunderstorms tomorrow bring the threat of heavy rain with them -- and the potential does exist for some locations to pick up two inches of rain if they get in on the heaviest of thunderstorms and get a second round of them during the day.  Tomorrow does appear to be one of those days where thunderstorms could be around at any point during the day, with a higher concentration in the midday and afternoon hours.

It's something we'll update you on tomorrow morning as well.