Tuesday, May 28, 2013

Potential For Season's First Tropical System Next Week?

The pattern aloft for tropical cyclone development is pretty favorable in the Eastern Pacific and Caribbean over the next couple of weeks and modeling is picking up on the potential of the Caribbean being the staging area for the first tropical system of 2013 in the Atlantic side at some point late next week.

The GFS and Euro have been hinting at the potential of some tropical development in the western parts of the Caribbean or southern Gulf of Mexico for a few days' now -- the timing has generally waffled around for a few days but of the last couple of days it has centered around late next week (a week from Thursday into Friday), with this system modeled by the GFS to be focused on the Southeast coastline -- Florida into Alabama as a potential target point.  The Euro is hinting at a Florida/Cuba impact.  Neither scenario looks particularly strong from a wind standpoint but rain is another matter...

This system would play into a potentially wet pattern for the East Coast for the end of next week and next weekend -- modeling from the GFS, Euro, and ensemble modeling from both plus the Canadian show the potential for some above average rains towards the end of next week and the first parts of the week of June 10th.

Modeling does show a frontal boundary, the one that ends our upcoming run of 90 degree weather, likely stalling out just off the coast. This could provide an avenue for moisture to push northeast and could provide an avenue for some of the moisture from any tropical development to push up the East Coast.  Not saying it will, but it could if the front does indeed stall along the coast next week and this modeled system does actually develop.

The issue around here from any tropical connection would be a threat for heavier rain, notsomuch anything substantial from a wind/coastal storm standpoint as the modeled system does not look particularly strong from a pressure or wind standpoint as it possibly hits the Southeast coast.  We'll keep an eye on it.